pages tagged mathsandreimorganhttps://andreimorgan.net/tags/maths/andreimorganikiwiki2023-08-01T14:34:49ZCOVID-19: personal updateshttps://andreimorgan.net/posts/covid_update/2023-08-01T14:34:49Z2020-03-24T00:16:47Z
<h2>COVID-19: personal updates</h2>
<p><img width="200" align="left" src="https://andreimorgan.net/images/posts/covid_update/tofu_small.jpg"> Tonight I've got
homemade Chinese food for dinner: delicious (vegan) tofu with black bean
sauce. It wasn't that difficult, I just chucked a load of ingredients
that I had lying around in the wok together - but this post isn't to
provide you with recipes. Instead, I thought I'd give a bit of an update
as I've not had so much time to write these past few days, and the world
is rapidly getting a crazier place to live. If you previously thought
that living under a left-wing dictatorship like you imagine they've got
in China was bad, you're gonna have another thing coming when a right
wing dictatorship arrives in your beloved western
"democracy". Meanwhile, I've been pretty busy recently. So please, a
<strong>warning:</strong> hold your hats on tight, there's a bit of explanation
coming up and <strong>it's not entirely pleasant reading.</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://andreimorgan.net/posts/covid_update/#more">Read what I've been up to...</a></p>
COVID-19: The BIG Questionhttps://andreimorgan.net/posts/covid_mortality/2023-08-01T14:34:49Z2020-03-19T10:12:03Z
<h2>COVID-19: The BIG Question</h2>
<p>With all the noise going on about COVID-19 at present, there's one
question that we would all like to know: am <em>I</em> going to die? Closely
followed by: is anyone I know going to die? I'm not going to answer
those questions today, but I am going to talk a little about what we do
- and don't - know about mortality from COVID-19.</p>
<p><a href="https://andreimorgan.net/posts/covid_mortality/#more">Read more...</a></p>
COVID-19: playing for time - strategies to combat spreadhttps://andreimorgan.net/posts/covid_strategy/2023-08-01T14:34:49Z2020-03-17T19:20:04Z
<h2>COVID-19: playing for time - strategies to combat spread.</h2>
<p>There's been a lot of discussion over the past few days about strategies
to mitigate the spread of <a href="https://andreimorgan.net/tags/COVID19/">COVID-19</a>, with different
messages being disseminated in different countries. For example, it is
well known that China and South Korea implemented a total lockdown, and
the number of cases in China has decreased to such an extent that there
are now more imported cases than ones developing internally. This
strategy of near total population isolation has been adopted by many
other countries - notably (for me) France, which yesterday announced
a relatively complete lockdown due to last "at least 2 weeks". In
contrast, the UK and USA appear to have been slower off the mark, with
the UK instead issuing advice for only some people to stay home and
providing different lengths of quarantine for different groups of
people. In this post, I dissect the latest UK modelling data (<a href="https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf">Report 9
(pdf)</a>
from the <a href="https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/">Imperial College COVID-19 Response
Team</a>)
that was released yesterday, and discuss some of the implications with
respect to the strategies that different countries have taken.</p>
<p><a href="https://andreimorgan.net/posts/covid_strategy/#more">Read more...</a></p>
COVID-19: some epidemiological modellinghttps://andreimorgan.net/posts/covid_graphs/2023-08-01T14:34:49Z2020-03-14T19:43:18Z
<h2>COVID-19: some epidemiological modelling</h2>
<p>My <a href="https://andreimorgan.net/posts/Covid19">last post</a> was about Covid-19, essentially advising
you to self-isolate - even if you don't yet (think you) have the
disease. I've had a lot of responses to that: essentially with people
agreeing to follow my advice. However, I think it's important to give
some explanation of why this is so important. Today, therefore, I
started trying to develop some models. In this post, I describe my
findings (and the limitations attached to them).</p>
<p><a href="https://andreimorgan.net/posts/covid_graphs/#more">Read about my modelling...</a></p>